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Beatable vs unbeatable games

Some people just like gambling, they enjoy the thrill. I can appreciate that. Personally though, I want to be confident that the game I’m playing can be beaten long term. In other words I want a game that doesn’t have a house edge. You still get the excitement because the variance inherent in the game means you get short term swings up and down, and it’s even nicer because you know that as long as you have the nerve to keep playing correctly the game will keep paying you.

To put it another way - if you enjoy gambling why not at least play a game you can win?

I define a beatable game to be one which either has a player advantage with correct strategy, or which can be given a player edge with a little extra work (e.g. card counting). It won’t necessarily be easy to beat the game, but it will be possible for a skilled player.

Beatable games:

  • Blackjack (if you’re card counting or playing optimally in a game with very liberal rules)
  • Craps (if dice control really works - currently I’m skeptical but open minded about it)
  • Poker
  • Slots (if you’re playing optimally at certain machines, or if the machine is progressive)
  • Sports betting
  • Video poker (if you’re playing optimally at certain machines - e.g. full pay deuces wild)

Unbeatable games:

In my opinion if you’re playing an unbeatable game, why not switch to a beatable one? Even if you’re not interested in making money, you can still make your money go a lot further.

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  1. jamie

    If you’re talking about software to predict online roulette wheels (powered by a RNG not a real wheel) then I have very little confidence it is possible in practice. I don’t have any experience with online roulette but I am familiar with the operation of random number generators (in particular their use in cryptography). While theoretically there may be exploitable tendencies within the random number generator, there are many problems to overcome before it is possible to exploit them. Not least is the sheer number of results you would need for analysis.

    I looked at the roulette raider web page and it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. You have to wonder why software developed over 2 years by a “team of highly skilled software engineers” can only be paid for by paypal to a personal email address. You’ve also got to question why someone would sell for $495 software which claims to be able to win you $4,179 per week…

    As far as software to predict real wheels, I’m sure it is possible to predict where the ball will land to a greater than random degree of accuracy. The real question is whether you can beat the house edge. That will obviously depend on factors particular to the wheel (some will be easier to predict than others) and input accuracy.

  1. roulette raider - Jul 15th, 2008

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