Smash Vegas

In replying to a comment I did some research into systems (computers, software and paper) designed to predict roulette spins, both online and on real wheels.  This is a somewhat popular area, probably down to the famous story of the Eudaemons.  What I found is that there are a lot of people out there selling these products, and a lot of stories of people getting scammed.

Before we proceed, two notes of caution.  Firstly you should avoid any roulette system which is based on betting patterns, progressive bets or anything of the sort.  If there is a weak point to roulette then it is in the spin of the wheel.  The mathematics of the table bets are simply stacked against you and no amount of fiddling with bet sizes or patterns can change that.  Secondly you should treat any “miracle system” with extreme skepticism.  Think of the true value of anything which can give you an edge in a casino game.  Why is it offered for sale?  When a business will usually be valued at several years worth of turnover, why is this (usually low) price being offered?

With those caveats, let’s look at systems for predicting the spin of a real roulette wheel.  I’m not vouching for the validity of any particular system or piece of equipment, but I’m fairly certain that this can be done with sophisticated enough equipment and accurate data input.  Remember that in American roulette you would only need to be able to predict a number with 1/35 accuracy instead of the normal 1/38 to give you a significant edge. There are three main methods;

Wheel Bias

A wheel that is poorly made or badly maintained can spin with a bias.  Perhaps it is tilted or worn in places.  We don’t really care why we only care that the bias exists.  There are documented cases of players recording results and identifying wheel bias, but you are very unlikely to be successful with this method any more.  Casinos are much more careful to maintain their wheels and most have computer systems to check for any bias in their equipment.  If a bias exists they’re likely to know about it way before you do.

Dealer Bias

Dealers spin their wheels so many times that they are bound to get “into a groove” and have a set technique.  Some believe that due to this it is possible to identify and exploit patterns peculiar to a dealer.  The problem with this theory is twofold.  Firstly if it does happen then (just as above) the casinos will know about it long before you do, and so have plenty of opportunity to adjust their equipment to prevent dealer bias being possible.  Secondly if it were true then it would seem logical that people could learn “precision spinning”, and to my knowledge no-one ever has.

Velocity estimation and target prediction

I think this is where we’re getting somewhere.  It was demonstrated by the Eudaemons (and others) that if you can accurately estimate the speed of the ball and account for the slowing of the wheel you can predict with some accuracy the area where the ball will land.  The degree of accuracy will obviously be dependent on the wheel and accuracy of estimations.  I’m sure that casinos have made some changes to wheels to increase randomness over the years.  While it’s clearly easier with computer power some claim that this can be done by eye with “paper systems”.  I’m not so sure about that, but would love to be proved wrong.

There are several websites advertising premade computers (many disguised as mobile phones) to predict spins.  While I have no experience with any of them I would advise extreme caution if you’re in the market for one.  A quick google search for “Mark Howe roulette” will give you some horror stories about non-working machines and fake experts promoting them.  This site (which I have no affiliation to) gave me the most confidence.  The author invites people to see his system/products demonstrated in person before purchase, and provides plenty of information in an honest if flowery way.  I intend to contact him to see if he’s interested in me testing his system for this site.

Next time we’ll look at online roulette.