Smash Vegas

Card counting has an unfair reputation as a technique reserved for geniuses and savants.  In fact the theory is very simple to grasp, and with a little practice anyone can master a basic card counting system.  It’s important to note that if you are playing basic strategy correctly then card counting is the only way to increase your edge further (and hence beat the house advantage).

The principle behind card counting in blackjack is that a deck with a higher proportion of high value cards (10,J,Q,K,A) is more favourable to the player while a deck with a higher proportion of low value cards (2,3,4,5,6) is more favourable to the dealer.

A deck rich in high cards favours the player because blackjacks are more common (and benefit the player more than the dealer), the dealer is more likely to bust his hand and double-downs have a higher probability of success.

So the goal becomes clear - count the number of high and low cards that are used to estimate whether the remaining deck is rich or poor in high value cards.  When it’s rich we bet more, when it’s poor we bet less.  There are also some small changes in basic strategy we can make depending on the deck being hot or cold but the main advantage to be gained from counting is in varying bet size.

It’s safe to say that card counters have existed for some time, but this theoretical basis was confirmed by Edward O. Thorpe’s use of computer trials and published in his 1962 book “Beat the Dealer”.  Since then various card counting methods have been developed of varying complexity.  Perhaps I should note here that all card counting methods are based on the same theory and provide
very similar results.  Some have more complicated counts which provide greater accuracy but the increased accuracy is soon offset if the player makes any mistakes due to the greater complexity.  It pays to keep things simple, at least initially.

Next time we’ll look at the Hi/Lo system.

If you want a downloadable guide then here’s my PDF.