Smash Vegas

So what got me thinking about writing again was some research into short stack strategies in Texas Hold’em.

A short stack strategy (SSS) is a strategy for playing when you don’t have many chips.  There are many variations but the basic theme is “hold out for really good pocket hands then go all in”.  This might seem a simplistic tactic but it can be surprisingly effective.

Jim Rose once reported in Bluff Magazine that Chris Ferguson turned $1 into $20,000 over five months with a very simple SSS which Rose had invented.  Buy in for the minimum amount at each table.  Wait for AA, KK, QQ or AK and then go all in.  If you double up you leave the table and go to another and sit down for the minimum buyin.  If you lose then reload to the minimum.

Others (like Ed Miller) recommend a SSS where you bet preflop with top hands, going all in if you are raised, otherwise waiting until the flop and going all in if you think you have the best hand.  Miller recommends the system as way of getting your feet wet if you’re new to a particular game - the complexity of the game is reduced by only having to worry about 2 rounds instead of 4.

So is there any theory to back this up?  Does it work?

Actually there are quite a few theoretical reasons for it being effective.  As you are essentially playing the top hands, other players should treat you with caution.  Some of them won’t though.  Many people see short stacks as “someone to take out” (I even recommended this viewpoint in a previous post).  This makes them underestimate the short stacked player and hence make mistakes.

It’s hard to play correctly against a short stack if they simply get their money in the pot early when they have the best of it.  Implied pot odds (pot odds taking into account the money you can expect to make in later rounds) are destroyed as the short stack has no more money to put in.  You can’t outplay him postflop.  The short stack has only one thing to worry about - is he +EV when he pushes all in?

If more than one person calls his all in push then he’s in even better shape.  The deeper stacks are in a prisoner’s dilemma situation.  Their best play is to have a gentleman’s agreement to not bet against each other.  This does not often happen.  As soon as they play against each other the short stack benefits, for if either folds then the short stack benefits from an increase in pot equity (chance of winning * pot size) for free.  In fact Koelman showed in The Mathematics of Short Stack Play that if one considers an extreme case where one player is ultra short stacked (has a one big blind stack) then he has an unexploitable strategy which will result in a positive payout as soon as the other stacks battle amongst themselves.

So where does that leave us?  Be wary of a very tight short stack. Playing against them profitably may not be as easy as you (or I) thought.