While card counting is not illegal, casinos are not very keen on you practicing it in their establishment - for obvious reasons. The ethics of this are debatable but unfortunately it does not change the fact that casinos look out for counters. In most countries casinos are private property and so they are free to kick out whoever they please. Even if they can’t / don’t want to do this they are usually able and willing to “back off” a counter - either telling them to play another game, requiring them to flat bet or changing the shuffling frequency to reduce deck penetration. Of course there are tales of more physical “backing off” episodes but this is rare these days.
Whatever the result, casino attention is bad news and card counters need to do whatever they can to stay below radar.
How can they identify you? Simple - you’re varying your bet size and strategy according to the count. If they can identify a hot/cold deck and correlate it to your actions then they’re there. What methods can they use?
[Read more]
Now that you’re familiar with the principles of card counting we can talk about a system most find much easier to use than Hi/Lo; the Knock-Out system.
Unlike Hi/Lo the K-O system is unbalanced as there are more +1 cards than -1 cards in a deck. The running count is changed as follows:
The reason this system is so much easier to use is that it is designed to remove the need to convert to a true count. It does this by using different initial running counts (starting points) depending on the number of decks. The deck is then favourable whenever the running count reaches the relevant key count.
[Read more]
Before you start learning the Hi/Lo system I need to make one thing perfectly clear. Unless you have learned basic strategy there is no point learning to count. We are working with relatively slim margins in terms of gaining an edge over the house and errors in basic strategy can easily destroy that edge.
With that said, let’s look at the Hi/Lo system for card counting. It’s probably the oldest published system and although it’s perhaps not the easiest to use in practice, it is very illustrative of the principles.
The Hi/Lo system uses a running count which starts at zero. Each time you see a 2,3,4,5 or 6 you add one to the count. Each time you see a 10,J,Q,K or A you subtract one from the count.
Sounds easy right?
[Read more]
Card counting has an unfair reputation as a technique reserved for geniuses and savants. In fact the theory is very simple to grasp, and with a little practice anyone can master a basic card counting system. It’s important to note that if you are playing basic strategy correctly then card counting is the only way to increase your edge further (and hence beat the house advantage).
The principle behind card counting in blackjack is that a deck with a higher proportion of high value cards (10,J,Q,K,A) is more favourable to the player while a deck with a higher proportion of low value cards (2,3,4,5,6) is more favourable to the dealer.
A deck rich in high cards favours the player because blackjacks are more common (and benefit the player more than the dealer), the dealer is more likely to bust his hand and double-downs have a higher probability of success.
So the goal becomes clear - count the number of high and low cards that are used to estimate whether the remaining deck is rich or poor in high value cards. When it’s rich we bet more, when it’s poor we bet less. There are also some small changes in basic strategy we can make depending on the deck being hot or cold but the main advantage to be gained from counting is in varying bet size.
It’s safe to say that card counters have existed for some time, but this theoretical basis was confirmed by Edward O. Thorpe’s use of computer trials and published in his 1962 book “Beat the Dealer”. Since then various card counting methods have been developed of varying complexity. Perhaps I should note here that all card counting methods are based on the same theory and provide
very similar results. Some have more complicated counts which provide greater accuracy but the increased accuracy is soon offset if the player makes any mistakes due to the greater complexity. It pays to keep things simple, at least initially.
Next time we’ll look at the Hi/Lo system.
If you want a downloadable guide then here’s my PDF.
When it comes to beating blackjack, game selection is every bit as important as basic strategy. There are thousands of blackjack variants with hugely differing house edges. You need to learn to identify which rules help and which hurt.
In general we prefer games that give us greater choice (eg. early surrender) or better payouts and dislike games which reduce choice or give worse payouts. If we’re card counting (and you should be) then we prefer fewer decks for obvious reasons. The following table should make things pretty clear. It shows the effect on a player’s return for various rule changes, relative to usual Atlantic City rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any first two cards, player can double after splitting, player may split to 4 hands.
[Read more]
